Tuesday, April 26, 2011

The Little Driller That Could: IVAN

I've been in and out of IVAN these past 2 years. The stock is quite predictable and has good prospects, but after the last decline I just started losing patience and exited my position with a profit.

I revisited the longer-term chart today and the prospects seem quite bullish. The last pullback seems to have been consolidation as it bounced off the 50% retracement level. Taking out the pointer, I drew in fibonacci fans as well as Andrews' Pitchforks to isolate trading range and trajectory. In doing so, I noticed A LOT of gravity and price confluences  in the 2.50 to 2.60 area. Not only is the 50 week MA average in that region, but also a fibonacci fan/trendline, but the bottom of the pitchfork, the 50% retracement from the last move up, and a bounce from this region tells me that there's some strong support here. Getting through this area will require a different kind of heavy-duty drilling; Not the drilling IVAN is used to :)

Notice the chart is a 3-year weekly and 'could be' forming a cup & handle pattern. A move to 3.16ish will get me looking, and a break-out over 4 will have me chasing. Ideally, waiting for confirmation of the break-out and a retest of support is the best play. However, I thought the gravity in the current range was definitely worth noting.

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Disclaimer: All content within this site is solely the opinion of the author and does not constitute investment advice. Trade at your own risk.